Where the NM Semifinalists are in 2017

Counselors and families have been curious about the impact of the new PSAT on National Merit since the last pencil was put down in October 2015. Would it lower/raise the number of Semifinalists at my school? Would it mean a higher/lower cutoff for my state? Which states would change the most? How does it all work? The one thing we knew before the test was even administered was that the number of Semifinalists in California would be approximately the same as in prior years — 2,100. The Semifinalist target for a state is determined by the number of high school juniors it has as a percentage of all U.S. high school juniors. This ensures national representation and means that the number of statewide awards does not vary much from year-to-year.   [For information about the National Merit cutoffs for all 50 states and for an explanation about how the National Merit process works, I recommend the preceding links.] What makes California a particularly interesting petri dish is that it is the most populous state and an incredibly diverse one. Since the cutoff is the same in every town, city, and county in the state, we can make some observations that are not applicable across state lines. National Merit Semifinalists by High School One of the most common questions received is â€Å"How many Semifinalists were there  at my school?† I compiled data for the last three years on the approximately 6,300 Semifinalists over that period. For the classes of 2015, 2016, and 2017 combined, 565 California high schools had at least 1 Semifinalist. A total of 53 homeschooled Semifinalists came from 41 different communities over the same period. While the breadth of high schools is impressive, the concentration is high. The top 12 high schools have more than a quarter of all Semifinalists. The top 36 schools enroll about 50% of the students continuing on to the Finalist and Scholar portions of the program. School CityNMSF 2017 ChgNMSF 2016 ChgNMSF 2015 Mission San Jose HSFremont84084-23107 Troy HSFullerton606541539 Lynbrook HSSan Jose49148-2068 Monta Vista HSCupertino49-857-1168 Harker SchoolSan Jose45-651-859 Torrey Pines HSSan Diego43538-745 Dougherty Valley HSSan Ramon40-545-1055 University HSIrvine361422-2648 Canyon Crest AcademySan Diego35-3381721 Henry M. Gunn HSPalo Alto35-11461036 Leland HSSan Jose34034826 Palo Alto HSPalo Alto32-133825 Saratoga HSSaratoga31-839138 Amador Valley HSPleasanton29-534034 St. Francis HSMountain View27621219 Arcadia HSArcadia271215-1631 Harvard-Westlake SchoolStudio City26-531625 Westview HSSan Diego23-831625 Westlake HSWestlake Village21912-315 Del Norte HSSan Diego21-425817 Oxford AcademyCypress20515213 Cupertino HSCupertino20-525-328 Homestead HSCupertino19-423419 Northwood HSIrvine19-928-230 Irvington HSFremont19-726-632 Bellarmine College PreparatorySan Jose18315-217 Evergreen Valley HSSan Jose17-10271116 Diamond Bar HSDiamond Bar17-623221 Davis HSDavis16511-112 Archbishop Mitty HSSan Jose16-622814 Lowell HSSan Francisco16115-1015 Los Altos HSLos Altos1501569 Menlo SchoolAtherton15213-114 College Preparatory SchoolOakland15-520614 American HSFremont15-318315 The Bishop's SchoolLa Jolla15213-518 Walnut HSWalnut15114-721 Palos Verdes Peninsula HSRolling Hills Estates14410-1929 Nueva SchoolSan Mateo1414000 Newbury Park HSNewbury Park1376-28 Mira Loma HSSacramento1349-312 Irvine HSIrvine1367-613 Scripps Ranch HSSan Diego13112-113 Valencia HSPlacentia123963 Menlo-Atherton HSAtherton12-11358 Miramonte HSOrinda1275-49 Arnoldo O. Beckman HSIrvine12-517314 Foothill HSPleasanton12-517-219 Valley Christian HSSan Jose11-31495 Campolindo HSMoraga1156-410 Crystal Springs Uplands SchoolHillsborough1165-611 North Hollywood HSNorth Hollywood1147-1421 Mount Carmel HSSan Diego1055-16 La Jolla HSLa Jolla1037-18 Polytechnic SchoolPasadena10-21239 San Marino HSSan Marino10-212210 Mountain View HSMountain View10-515-217 Aragon HSSan Mateo9-413112 La Canada HSLa Canada91844 Dublin HSDublin92707 Los Gatos HSLos Gatos90918 Piedmont HSPiedmont9-21129 Whitney HSCerritos9-413013 Woodbridge HSIrvine9-413-619 California HSSan Ramon927-1421 Santa Margarita Catholic SchoolRancho Santa Margarita81725 Carlmont HSBelmont8-816106 Crescenta Valley HSLa Crescenta81707 San Francisco University HSSan Francisco8-41257 Palos Verdes HSPalos Verdes Estates73422 San Mateo HSSan Mateo74303 James S. Logan HSUnion City743-25 Mira Costa HSManhattan Beach70725 Monte Vista HSDanville7-31037 South Pasadena HSSouth Pasadena7-1808 Rancho Bernardo HSSan Diego7-31019 Castilleja SchoolPalo Alto716-612 Maria Carrilo HSSanta Rosa63303 Head-Royce SchoolOakland6-2844 Beverly Hills HSBeverly Hills633-25 The Thacher SchoolOjai624-15 Pacific Ridge SchoolCarlsbad624-26 Flintridge Preparatory SchoolLa Canada6-61266 Albany HSAlbany633-58 Berkeley HSBerkeley6-410-515 Mills HSMillbrae53211 Oakland Technical HSOakland53202 Branson SchoolRoss52312 Sunny Hills HSFullerton5-4972 Glen A. Wilson HSHacienda Heights541-23 Alameda HSAlameda532-13 Orange County School of the ArtsSanta Ana532-13 Washington HSFremont541-34 Agoura HSAgoura Hills532-24 Acalanes HSLafayette523-14 Granada Hills Charter HSGranada Hills5-2734 Chadwick SchoolPalos Verdes Peninsula541-45 Lick-Wilmerding HSSan Francisco50505 Milpitas HSMilpitas505-49 Hillsdale HSSan Mateo53220 Adolfo Camarillo HSCamarillo51440 Canyon HSAnaheim5-2770 Chaminade College Preparatory SchoolWest Hills43101 La Jolla Country Day SchoolLa Jolla40431 Great Oak HSTemecula440-11 John W. North HSRiverside431-12 Prospect HSSaratoga431-12 Clovis North HSFresno42202 Centennial HSCorona4-1532 Notre Dame HSSan Jose4-1532 South HSTorrance431-23 Las LomasWalnut Creek431-23 West Ranch HSValencia422-13 Oakridge HSEl Dorado Hills41303 Trabuco Hills HSMission Viejo4-2633 Corona del Mr HSNewport Beach4-3734 La Costa Canyon HSCarlsbad422-35 San Dieguito AcademyEncinitas404-15 Aliso Niguel HSAliso Viejo4-2615 Mark Keppel HSAlhambra4-3725 Marlborough SchoolLos Angeles413-36 Palisades Charter HSPacific Palisades4-2606 Oak Park HSOak Park4-3716 San Ramon Valley HSDanville404-48 Dos Pueblos HSGoleta413-69 Santa Monica HSSanta Monica404-59 Basis Independent Silicon ValleySan Jose42220 De La Salle HSConcord32101 San Clemente HSSan Clemente31211 Gabrielino HSSan Gabriel31211 Brentwood SchoolLos Angeles30321 Fremont HSSunnyvale30321 Burlingame HSBurlingame330-11 St. Margaret's Episcopal SchoolSan Juan Capistrano321-12 HomeschoolSan Jose31202 Folsom HSFolsom30312 Loyola HSLos Angeles30312 Tesoro HSRancho Santa Margarita3-1422 Huntington Beach HSHuntington Beach330-22 Oakmont HSRoseville330-22 El Camino Real Charter HSWoodland Hills330-22 West HSTorrance30303 Francis W. Parker SchoolSan Diego3-3633 Crossroads SchoolSanta Monica330-33 Glendora HSGlendora312-24 Cate SchoolCarpinteria303-14 Los Alamitos HSLos Alamitos303-14 Poway HSPoway312-35 Los Osos HSRancho Cucamonga312-35 Fountain Valley HSFountain Valley3-6945 Redwood HSLarkspur330-55 Castro Valley HSCastro Valley3-14-26 Sage Hill SchoolNewport Beach3-4716 Temple City HSTemple City3-25-27 Piedmont Hills HSSan Jose3-81138 Sierra Canyon SchoolChatsworth32110 Coronado HSCoronado32110 University Preparatory AcademySan Jose32110 Viewpoint SchoolCalabasas31220 Marina HSHuntington Beach31220 Granada HSLivermore31220 Saugus HSSaugus31220 Oaks Christian HSWestlake Village31220 Westmont HSCampbell30330 Athenian SchoolDanville30330 Vista del Lago HSFolsom30330 Granite Bay HSGranite Bay30330 Stevenson HSPebble Beach3-3660 Buena Park HSBuena Park33000 Sage Creek HSCarlsbad33000 Classical Academy HSEscondido33000 Willow Glen HSSan Jose33000 San Marcos HSSan Marcos33000 Bella Vista HSFair Oaks21101 Garden Grove HSGarden Grove21101 Santa Teresa HSSan Jose21101 J Serra Catholic HSSan Juan Capistrano21101 Oakwood SchoolNorth Hollywood20211 San Marcos HSSanta Barbara20211 Dana Hills HSDana Point2-1321 Santa Cruz HSSanta Cruz2-1321 California Academy of Mathematics and ScienceCarson2-2431 Pinewood SchoolLos Altos Hills2-2431 Silver Creek HSSan Jose2-2431 York SchoolMonterey2-3541 Arroyo Grande HSArroyo Grande220-11 Calabasas HSCalabasas220-11 Jesuit HSCarmichael220-11 Alison Early College HSFremont220-11 West Campus HSSacramento220-11 Branham HSSan Jose220-11 Santa Clara HSSanta Clara220-11 El Toro HSLake Forest211-12 William S. Hart HSNewhall211-12 Newport Harbor HSNewport Beach211-12 Redlands HSRedlands211-12 San Gabriel HSSan Gabriel211-12 University HSFresno20202 Ruben S. Ayala HSChino Hills2-2413 Culver City HSCulver City2-2413 University City HSSan Diego2-2413 Claremont HSClaremont2-13-14 John A. Rowland HSRowland Heights2-4624 Sacred Heart Preparatory SchoolAtherton202-35 Stockdale HSBakersfield2-13-25 Carlsbad HSCarlsbad2-4615 Fairmont Preparatory AcademyAnaheim2-24-26 Bakersfield HSBakersfield21110 Benicia HSBenicia21110 Bonita Vista HSChula Vista21110 Floyd B. Buchanan HSClovis21110 Clovis West HSFresno21110 Pioneer HSSan Jose21110 Santa Barbara HSSanta Barbara21110 De Toledo HSWest Hills21110 William Howard Taft HSWoodland Hills21110 Woodside Priory SchoolPortola Valley20220 Adrian C. Wilcox HSSanta Clara2-1330 Alta Loma HSAlta Loma22000 Aptos HSAptos22000 St. Mary's College High SchoolBerkeley22000 Chico HSChico22000 Fremont Christian HSFremont22000 Livermore Valley Charter Preparatory HSLivermore22000 Orange LutheranOrange22000 John Marshall Fundamental SchoolPasadena22000 College Park HSPleasant Hill22000 International Polytechnic HSPomona22000 Citrus Valley HSRedlands22000 Redondo Union HSRedondo Beach22000 Western Sierra Collegiate AcademyRocklin22000 Maranatha Christian SchoolsSan Diego22000 Summit TahomaSan Jose22000 Rancho Buena Vista HSVista22000 West Covina HSWest Covina22000 El Cerrito HSEl Cerrito10101 Cosumnes Oakes HSElk Grove10101 Escondido HSEscondido10101 Rosary AcademyFullerton10101 Clark Magnet HSLa Crescenta10101 Damien HSLa Verne10101 Alexander Hamilton HSLos Angeles10101 Mission Vista HSOceanside10101 Casa Grande HSPetaluma10101 Pacific Collegiate SchoolSanta Cruz10101 Buckley SchoolSherman Oaks10101 Torrance HSTorrance10101 Tracy Joint Union HSTracy10101 Merrill F. West HSTracy10101 Laguna Hills HSLaguna Hills1-1211 Marymount HSLos Angeles1-1211 El Dorado HSPlacerville1-1211 Sequoia HSRedwood City1-1211 Jewish Community HS of the BaySan Francisco1-1211 Academy of the CanyonsSanta Clarita1-1211 Villa Park HSVilla Park1-1211 Sacred Heart Cathedral PreparatorySan Francisco1-2321 Marin AcademySan Rafael1-2321 Foothill HSSanta Ana1-4541 Canyon HSCanyon Country110-11 Dixon HSDixon110-11 Escondido Charter HSEscondido110-11 Christopher HSGilroy110-11 Paraclete HSLancaster110-11 Notre Dame AcademyLos Angeles110-11 Schurr HSMontebello110-11 Ann Sobrato HSMorgan Hill110-11 El Modena HSOrange110-11 Riverside Polytechnic HSRiverside110-11 St. Francis HSSacramento110-11 Oak Grove HSSan Jose110-11 Mater Dei HSSanta Ana110-11 Ponderosa HSShingle Springs110-11 Ukiah HSUkiah110-11 Monte Vista Christian HSWatsonville110-11 HomeschoolFremont101-12 Moreau Catholic HSHayward101-12 LivermoreLivermore101-12 WindwardLos Angeles101-12 Ruth Asawa School of the ArtsSan Francisco101-12 Cathedral Catholic HSSan Diego1-2312 Servite HSAnaheim110-22 Pacifica HSGarden Grove110-22 Wildwood SchoolLos Angeles110-22 Novato HSNovato110-22 Santa Susanna HSSimi Valley110-22 Mission Viejo HSMission Viejo101-23 Upland HSUpland101-23 Yorba Linda HSYorba Linda101-23 Presentation HSSan Jose1-12-13 San Luis Obispo HSSan Luis Obispo1-12-13 Capistrano Valley HSMission Viejo1-3413 Cerritos HSCerritos1-5633 The King's AcademySunnyvale1-5633 Palm Desert HSPalm Desert110-33 San Juan Hills HSSan Juan Capistrano110-33 Analy HSSebastopol110-33 Thousand Oaks HSThousand Oaks1-12-24 Valencia HSValencia1-23-14 Chino Hills HSChino Hills1-23-25 Westridge School for GirlsPasadena110-55 Valley Christian HSDublin10110 Southwest HSEl Centro10110 Arroyo HSEl Monte10110 Laguna Creek HSElk Grove10110 Pleasant Grove HSElk Grove10110 Tarbut V'Torah Community Day SchoolIrvine10110 St. Francis HSLa Canada10110 The Preuss School U.C.S.D.La Jolla10110 New Covenant AcademyLos Angeles10110 HomeschoolMilpitas10110 James C. Enochs HSModesto10110 Campbell HallNorth Hollywood10110 Villanova Preparatory SchoolOjai10110 La Salle HSPasadena10110 Rancho Cucamonga HSRancho Cucamonga10110 Sherman E. Burroughs HSRidgecrest10110 Ripon Christian HSRipon10110 Mount Everest AcademySan Diego10110 Orchard View SchoolSebastopol10110 Notre Dame HSSherman Oaks10110 Bishop Montgomery HSTorrance10110 Foothill Technology HSVentura10110 Woodside HSWoodside10110 San Pasqual HSEscondido1-1220 Cleveland HSReseda1-1220 Sacramento Country Day SchoolSacramento1-1220 HomeschoolSan Diego1-1220 Leigh HSSan Jose1-1220 San Rafael HSSan Rafael1-1220 HomeschoolAgoura Hills11000 California Crosspoint HSAlameda11000 Antelope HSAntelope11000 Northcoast Preparatory and Performing Arts AcademyArcata11000 HomeschoolArroyo Grande11000 Placer HSAuburn11000 Maybeck HSBerkeley11000 Brea Olinda HSBrea11000 Heritage HSBrentwood11000 Lutheran HS of San DiegoChula Vista11000 Mater Dei Catholic HSChula Vista11000 HomeschoolClaremont11000 HomeschoolCupertino11000 HomeschoolDanville11000 Warren HSDowney11000 Grossmont HSEl Cajon11000 Grossmont Middle College HSEl Cajon11000 Etiwanda HSEtiwanda11000 San Lorenzo Valley HSFelton11000 Design Science HSFresno11000 Edison HSFresno11000 Fullerton Union HSFullerton11000 Bolsa Grande HSGarden Grove11000 Gilroy HSGilroy11000 Dr. T.J. Owens Gilroy Early College AcademyGilroy11000 Western Center AcademyHemet11000 Ocean View HSHuntington Beach11000 HomeschoolIrvine11000 Pacific AcademyIrvine11000 HomeschoolJunction City11000 Helix Charter HSLa Mesa11000 HomeschoolLancaster11000 Soar HSLancaster11000 Lodi AcademyLodi11000 Ldi HSLodi11000 Archer School for GirlsLos Angeles11000 Eagle Rock HSLos Angeles11000 HomeschoolLos Angeles11000 Los Angeles County HS for the ArtsLos Angeles11000 HomeschoolManhattan Beach11000 Stone Ridge Christian HSMerced11000 Fred C. Beyer HSModesto11000 Joseph A. Gregori HSModesto11000 Monrovia HSMonrovia11000 HomeschoolMontara11000 Morro Bay HSMorro Bay11000 Calvary Murrieta Christian SchoolMurrieta11000 HomeschoolNovato11000 Oakland Charter HSOakland11000 Orcutt Academy HSOrcutt11000 Pacific Grove HSPacific Grove11000 Paradise HSParadise11000 Patterson HSPatterson11000 Pinole Valley HSPinole11000 HomeschoolPleasant Hill11000 Rancho Mirage HSRancho Mirage11000 Rancho Santa Fe Horizon PrepRancho Mirage11000 EnterpriseRedding11000 ShastaRedding11000 Grove HSRedlands11000 Martin Luther King HSRiverside11000 Technology HSRohnert Park11000 Rosemont HSSacramento11000 Capuchino HSSan Bruno11000 Point Loma HSSan Diego11000 San Diego HS of International StudiesSan Diego11000 San Diego Jewish AcademySan Diego11000 Junipero Serra HSSan Diego11000 San Dimas HSSan Dimas11000 Cambrian AcademySan Jose11000 High Tech High-North CountySan Marcos11000 St. Joseph AcademySan Marcos11000 San Pedro HSSan Pedro11000 Live Oak AcademySanta Clara11000 HomeschoolSantee11000 Steel Canyon HSSpring Valley11000 Stockton Early College AcademyStockton11000 Weston Ranch HSStockton11000 HomeschoolSunnyvale11000 Ambassador HSTorrance11000 Twentynine Palms HSTwentynine Palms11000 Trinity Classical AcademyValencia11000 El Camino HSVentura11000 University Preparatory SchoolVictorville11000 Edgewood HSWest Covina11000 Temecula Preparatory SchoolWinchester11000 Encinal HSAlameda0-1101 Alhambra HSAlhambra0-1101 St. John Bosco HSBellflower0-1101 Burbank HSBurbank0-1101 Armijo HSFairfield0-1101 Glendale HSGlendale0-1101 John F. Kennedy HSLa Palma0-1101 Tokay HSLodi0-1101 Moorpark HSMoorpark0-1101 Justin-Siena HSNapa0-1101 Bishop O'Dowd HSOakland0-1101 Redlands East Valley HSRedlands0-1101 La Sierra HSRiverside0-1101 Sir Francis Drake HSSan Anselmo0-1101 St. Augustine HSSan Diego0-1101 Urban SchoolSan Francisco0-1101 Georgiana Bruce Kirby Preparatory SchoolSanta Cruz0-1101 Middle College HSStockton0-1101 John C. Kimball HSTracy0-1101 Berean Christian HSWalnut Creek0-1101 Arcata HSArcata0-2211 Rocklin HSRocklin0-2211 Lincoln HSStockton0-4431 HomeschoolAlameda000-11 Acaciawood SchoolAnaheim000-11 Granite Hills HSApple Valley000-11 Independence HSBakersfield000-11 Valley Oaks Charter SchoolBakersfield000-11 Desert Christian AcademyBermuda Dunes000-11 Bishop Union HSBishop000-11 Mercy HSBurlingame000-11 Army and Navy AcademyCarlsbad000-11 Valley Christian HSCerritos000-11 Inspire School of Arts and SciencesChico000-11 Pleasant Valley HSChico000-11 Webb School of CaliforniaClaremont000-11 Eleanor Roosevelt HSEastvale000-11 Academy of the RedwoodsEureka000-11 HomeschoolFairfax000-11 Fort Bragg HSFort Bragg000-11 Marin Catholic HSKentfield000-11 River Valley Charter SchoolLakeside000-11 Mayfair HSLakewood000-11 Del Oro HSLoomis000-11 HomeschoolLos Altos000-11 School for Independent LearnersLos Altos000-11 Dunn SchoolLos Olivos000-11 Mid Peninsula HSManhattan Beach000-11 Merced HSMerced000-11 Vintage HSNapa000-11 Nipomo HSNipomo000-11 John F Kennedy Middle College HSNorco000-11 Norco HSNorco000-11 San Marin HSNovato000-11 Oakland School for the ArtsOakland000-11 Pasadena HSPasadena000-11 St. Monica AcademyPasadena000-11 Redlands Adventist AcademyRedlands000-11 Everest HSRedwood City000-11 Reseda HSReseda000-11 Sherman Oaks Center for Enriched StudiesReseda000-11 Whitney HSRocklin000-11 Roseville HSRoseville000-11 Cajon HSSan Bernardino000-11 HomeschoolSan Bruno000-11 Academy of Our Lady of PeaceSan Diego000-11 Horizon Christian AcademySan Diego000-11 Mira Mesa HSSan Diego000-11 Balboa HSSan Francisco000-11 HomeschoolSan Francisco000-11 Mount Pleasant HSSan Jose000-11 San Leandro HSSan Leandro000-11 Mary Star of the Sea HSSan Pedro000-11 HomeschoolSanta Barbara000-11 HomeschoolSanta Cruz000-11 Montgomery HSSanta Rosa000-11 Venture AcademyStockton000-11 Developing Virtue Secondary SchoolTalmage000-11 TehachapiTehachapi000-11 Templeton HSTempleton000-11 Turlock HSTurlock000-11 Redwood HSVisalia000-11 St. Francis Central Coast Catholic HSWatsonville000-11 Trinity HSWeaverville000-11 Pioneer HSWoodland000-11 Yuba City HSYuba City000-11 Chinese Christian HSAlameda0-11-12 Carmel HSCarmel0-11-12 Tamalpais HSMill Valley0-11-12 Quarry Lane SchoolPleasanton0-11-12 Patrick Henry HSSan Diego0-11-12 Vivian Webb SchoolClaremont0-2202 Long Beach Polytechnic HSLong Beach0-2202 Quartz Hill HSQuartz Hill0-2202 Salinas HSSalinas0-2202 John Burroughs HSBurbank000-22 Herbert Hoover HSGlendale000-22 Laguna Beach HSLaguna Beach000-22 Francisco Bravo Medical Magnet HSLos Angeles000-22 Terra Nova HSPacifica000-22 C.K. McClatchy HSSacramento000-22 International HSSan Francisco000-22 La Reina HSTempleton000-22 Kehillah Jewish HSPalo Alto0-11-23 Simi Valley HSSimi Valley0-11-23 Junipero Serra HSSan Mateo0-22-13 Van Nuys HSVan Nuys0-6633 Northgate HSWalnut Creek0-33-14 Los Angeles Center for Eriched StudiesLos Angeles0-4404 Los Altos HSHacienda Heights000-44 Santa Rosa HSSanta Rosa000-44 Sonoma AcademySanta Rosa000-44 Cypress HSCypress0-33-25 Arroyo HSSan Lorenzo000-55 Alameda Community Learning CenterAlameda0-1110 Dozier-Libbey Medical HSAntioch0-1110 A.G.B.U Manoogian-Demirdjian SchoolCanoga Park0-1110 Clovis HSClovis0-1110 Clayton Valley HSConcord0-1110 John Swett HSCrockett0-1110 HomeschoolCypress0-1110 Wisdom Mission SchoolCypress0-1110 HomeschoolDiamond Bar0-1110 Granite Hills HSEl Cajon0-1110 HomeschoolEscondido0-1110 HomeschoolFeather Falls0-1110 John F. Kennedy HSFremont0-1110 HomeschoolGilroy0-1110 HomeschoolGlencoe0-1110 Hanford HSHanford0-1110 Edison HSHuntington Beach0-1110 Greater San Diego AcademyJamul0-1110 La Mirada HSLa Mirada0-1110 Bonita HSLa Palma0-1110 HomeschoolLaguna Niguel0-1110 HomeschoolLivermore0-1110 Cathedral HSLos Angeles0-1110 Pilgrim SchoolLos Angeles0-1110 Renaissance Arts AcademyLos Angeles0-1110 Ribet AcademyLos Angeles0-1110 Midland SchoolLos Olivos0-1110 Malibu HSMalibu0-1110 HomeschoolMission Viejo0-1110 Oakwood SchoolMorgan Hill0-1110 HomeschoolOakland0-1110 Casa Roble Fundamental HSOrangevale0-1110 Oxnard HSOxnard0-1110 Rio Mesa HSOxnard0-1110 Foothill HSPalo Cedro0-1110 Maranatha HSPasadena0-1110 Mayfield SchoolPasadena0-1110 El Dorado HSPlacentia0-1110 HomeschoolRedding0-1110 Rosemead HSRosemead0-1110 Bradshaw Christian SchoolSacramento0-1110 Christian Brothers HSSacramento0-1110 Rio Americano HSSacramento0-1110 Palma HSSalinas0-1110 Aquinas HSSan Bernardino0-1110 High Tech HighSan Diego0-1110 Convent of the Sacred Heart HSSan Francisco0-1110 Galileo Academy of Science and TechnologySan Francisco0-1110 Mission Hills HSSan Marcos0-1110 Terra Linda HSSan Rafael0-1110 Laguna Blanca SchoolSanta Barbara0-1110 Golden Valley HSSanta Clarita0-1110 Redwood Adventist AcademySanta Rosa0-1110 Santa Ynez Valley Union HSSanta Ynez0-1110 HomeschoolSimi Valley0-1110 Royal HSSimi Valley0-1110 Santa Fe Christian SchoolSolana Beach0-1110 Beach HSSoquel0-1110 HomeschoolStockton0-1110 HomeschoolVilla Park0-1110 Vista HSVista0-1110 HomeschoolWest Hills0-1110 Franklin HSElk Grove0-2220 Loma Linda AcademyLoma Linda0-2220 Immaculate Heart HSLos Angeles0-2220 Shalhevet HSLos Angeles0-2220 German International School of Silicon ValleyMountain View0-2220 Sonora HSLa Habra0-3330 Fairfax HSLos Angeles0-3330 Milken Community SchoolLos Angeles0-3330 Modesto HSModesto0-3330 Murrieta Valley HSMurrieta0-3330 Independence HSSan Jose0-3330 La Quinta HSWestminster0-3330 John Marshall HSLos Angeles0-4440 St. Ignatius College Preparatory SchoolSan Francisco0-5550 A look at the largest swings makes clear that the shift to the new PSAT is not the only thing that can change the number of Semifinalists at a school. The changes from 2015 to 2016 were actually more dramatic. A number of factors may be involved. First, public schools — partly by virtue of their size — dominate the ranks of schools at the top of the list. These high schools do not control their enrollment in the same way that private schools do. There may be an influx of new students (or an outflow of existing students) due to employment changes in a district or an increase in families with high school age children. It’s also beyond this post to look at how any potential changes in high school districts changed the landscape. Did a new high school open? Did consolidation occur? State and National Heavyweights Despite the amazing number of Semifinalists at Mission San Jose High School in Fremont, it does not enroll the most Semifinalists in the country. NMSC doesn’t make that information easy to find, but I know of at least two schools with more Semifinalists this year: Stuyvesant High School in New York City had 103 (of note is that they had 131 the previous year), and  Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology in Virginia had 119 (down from 164!). Both of those schools are magnet schools, whereas Mission San Jose is open enrollment. MSJHS has only about 550 juniors. Broader Distribution of Schools for the New PSAT If the top schools didnt change much more in 2017 than they did in 2016, it might seem as though the new PSAT had no impact.  On the contrary, I think it did. The change was most visible when looking at the spread of student numbers. The table below shows that the new PSAT may have meant greater representation at schools that average less than a handful of Semifinalists each year. What Caused the Reshuffling? There are several ways in which the new PSAT may have reshuffled the numbers. 1) Content Change The new PSAT is more aligned with Common Core curriculum than the old test. This concerned some schools that did not adhere to Common Core. It turns out, though, that the topics tested on the PSAT are fairly universal. Some of the flourishes such as â€Å"founding documents† and â€Å"global conversation† reading passages have turned out to be window-dressing more than score changing. 2) Leveling the Lopsided The old PSATs 20-80 score ranges were meant to mimic the 200-800 ranges of the SAT. This mirroring neglected to account for the fact that SAT students are older, have covered more material, and have more testing under their belts. The highest range of PSAT scores was, therefore, underutilized and not always reliable. College Board decided to keep â€Å"vertical scaling† with the SAT while shifting the PSAT score range to 160-760. For most students, this was a non-issue. For the highest scoring students — those looking at National Merit honors — the top end change has implications for the â€Å"lopsided† student. On the old PSAT, a student well-versed on the reading and writing portions of the test might have racked up large gains by score 77-80 on these two sections. These students are now capped at 760, so their â€Å"pickup† in their strong suit is not as dramatic. I was interested to see if this â€Å"disadvantage† to a lopsided student carried through to the school level. While it doesn’t leap out from California data, the numbers from Stuyvesant and Thomas Jefferson are interesting. These magnet schools often have lopsided students — in the case of Thomas Jefferson, presumably on the STEM side of the line. The latter’s 26% drop in Semifinalists may be more than a coincidence. They had only 129 Semifinalists in the class of 2015, though, so 2016 may have just been an unusual class or score distribution. 3) Score Inflation and Compression These topics are intertwined with #2 and are explored in more depth in a separate piece. In short, the grading of the new PSAT (4 answer choices, no guessing penalty) contributed to an increase in scores. It became easier to reach most score levels — particularly at the low end. However, this inflation runs into an obstacle at the high end — there is nowhere left to go. In fact, there is even less room to go because of the shift from 80(0) to 760. Also, the wind-assist provided by guessing has little impact on a student who typically only misses a problem or two. The net result was that the Commended Student level was almost guaranteed to move up, while we expected that the upper ranges would move down. This was exactly what happened. States with SF cutoffs traditionally in the 202-210 range saw increases of 6 to 7 points. States such as California and New Jersey in the 222-225 range, in contrast, saw scores move down 1 to 3 points. How do these cutoff changes play out within a state? One theory is that score compression had a leveling effect. Imagine a driving range that extends 300  yards. I dont stand a chance of keeping up with a pro golfer at  hitting  balls into the net. Move the back net up to 150 yards, though, and I might occasionally hit  10 balls out of 10 and match  the worlds best. This is an extreme exaggeration of the changes that occurred the net got moved in. I believe the 3 factors did have at least some  leveling effect. The content more closely reflected what is taught in virtually every school. The more typical scorer gained a slight advantage over the lopsided scorer. And the compressed range of scores made it just a bit more likely that good fortune came into play. National Merit Semifinalists by City CityNMSF 2017NMSF 2016NMSF 2015 San Jose224245225 San Diego166178150 Fremont128131161 Irvine9288124 Cupertino89105115 Palo Alto748676 Fullerton676442 San Ramon495276 Pleasanton415255 Mountain View373836 Saratoga354040 San Mateo35208 San Francisco323636 La Jolla302527 Atherton292827 Arcadia271531 Oakland273222 Studio City263125 Westlake Village241415 Cypress202018 Los Angeles203622 Sacramento181416 Diamond Bar172421 La Canada162110 Davis161112 Los Altos151511 Carlsbad151217 Walnut151421 Danville151715 Pasadena141516 Rolling Hills Estates141029 North Hollywood141022 Newbury Park1368 Placentia12103 Orinda1259 Moraga11610 Hillsborough11511 Rancho Santa Margarita11117 Dublin1087 San Marino101210 Torrance1067 Cerritos101917 Fresno1054 Berkeley91015 Newport Beach91512 Los Gatos998 Piedmont9119 La Crescenta988 Manhattan Beach876 Belmont8166 Anaheim8119 Santa Ana775 South Pasadena788 Santa Monica7412 Huntington Beach732 Union City735 Ojai755 Palos Verdes Estates742 Folsom662 Valencia657 Escondido642 Riverside624 Agoura Hills624 Beverly Hills635 Livermore642 Albany638 Alameda657 West Hills631 San Juan Capistrano626 Santa Rosa6412 Mission Viejo6129 Milpitas669 San Marcos510 Camarillo540 Santa Clara531 Palos Verdes Peninsula515 Millbrae521 Granada Hills574 Lafayette534 Hacienda Heights517 Calabasas521 Redlands524 Sunnyvale594 Woodland Hills512 San Gabriel533 Ross532 El Dorado Hills433 Pacific Palisades466 Santa Barbara442 Goleta439 Temecula401 Encinitas445 Walnut Creek458 Rancho Cucamonga435 Alhambra486 Chula Vista410 Garden Grove413 Aliso Viejo465 Bakersfield447 Corona452 Oak Park476 Burlingame302 Elk Grove351 Claremont357 San Clemente321 Buena Park300 Concord321 Arroyo Grande301 Poway325 Temple City357 Pebble Beach360 Glendora324 Granite Bay330 Los Alamitos334 Modesto340 Saugus320 Chino Hills378 Pleasant Hill300 Lancaster301 Roseville303 Larkspur305 Campbell330 Castro Valley346 Fountain Valley395 Orange301 Santa Cruz354 West Covina300 Coronado310 Gilroy311 Chatsworth310 Carpinteria334 Lodi211 Vista210 Tracy233 Aptos200 Portola Valley220 Fair Oaks211 Carson241 Benicia210 Los Altos Hills241 Lake Forest212 Novato203 Redding210 San Rafael261 Carmichael201 Rowland Heights264 Redondo Beach200 Clovis220 Culver City243 Newhall212 Rocklin222 Ventura210 Sebastopol213 Dana Point231 Sherman Oaks221 Pomona200 Alta Loma200 Chico202 Stockton263 El Cajon210 Monterey251 Rancho Mirage200 Murrieta130 Rohnert Park100 Ukiah101 Pacific Grove100 Woodside110 San Dimas100 Thousand Oaks124 Junction City100 Felton100 Palm Desert103 Brea100 Antelope100 Spring Valley100 Merced101 Dixon101 San Luis Obispo123 Redwood City122 El Cerrito111 Upland113 Auburn100 Villa Park131 Paradise100 Watsonville102 San Pedro101 Winchester100 El Monte110 Ridgecrest110 Patterson100 Laguna Hills121 La Mesa100 Arcata121 Petaluma111 Etiwanda100 Monrovia100 Downey100 Santa Clarita131 Twentynine Palms100 Pinole100 Reseda122 Montara100 Ripon110 Placerville121 Victorville100 Santee100 Hayward112 Montebello101 Hemet100 La Verne111 Oceanside111 Canyon Country101 Brentwood100 Morgan Hill111 Orcutt100 Shingle Springs101 Yorba Linda113 Simi Valley135 San Bruno101 Morro Bay100 El Centro110 Napa012 Soquel010 Rosemead010 Bermuda Dunes001 Westminster030 Bishop001 Oxnard020 Burbank013 San Leandro001 Canoga Park010 Turlock001 Carmel012 Apple Valley001 Crockett010 Norco002 Eastvale001 Palo Cedro010 Eureka001 San Anselmo011 Fairfax001 Santa Ynez010 Fairfield011 Tehachapi001 Feather Falls010 Visalia001 Fort Bragg001 Yuba City001 Glencoe010 Moorpark011 Glendale013 Nipomo001 Hanford010 Orangevale010 Jamul010 Pacifica002 Kentfield001 Quartz Hill022 La Habra030 Salinas032 La Mirada010 San Bernardino011 La Palma021 San Lorenzo005 Laguna Beach002 Solana Beach010 Laguna Niguel010 Talmage001 Lakeside001 Templeton003 Lakewood001 Van Nuys063 Loma Linda020 Weaverville001 Long Beach022 Woodland001 Loomis001 Antioch010 Los Olivos011 Malibu010 Mill Valley012 Bellflower011 A geographic analysis matches up with what was seen at the school level. On the one hand, the numbers are again dominated by a few.  Santa Clara has 5% of California’s population but has 1/4 of the states NMSFs. Only 8 states have more Semifinalists than Santa Clara County! On the other hand,  Semifinalists went to schools in 221 different cities (NMSC tracks where a student goes to school, not where he or she lives). In the previous two years, the figures were 204 and 206.   More high schools with one or two Semifinalists meant  a greater probability that more cities had  one or two Semifinalists. At risk of being a geo-geek, I should point out that NMSC tracks place names rather than cities. For example, Studio City is a neighborhood within the city of Los Angeles. And despite the fact that a private school such as Harvard-Westlake pulls from a wide geographic area, all its Semifinalists are placed in Studio City. National Merit Semifinalists by  County I thought that county level data might be interesting because it would even out those sorts of placement anomalies. Given the concentration seen elsewhere, it’s not surprising that small counties are at a marked disadvantage — even beyond their size. The 23 counties with populations under 100,000 have a cumulative population about that of Delaware or Montana. If they seceded and formed their own state (or if they just had proportional representation within CA), they’d be allotted about 50 Semifinalists a year. As it is now, they average 3 per year. County2017 NMSF2016 NMSF2015 NMSF PopNMSF/Yr Per 100K Per Cap $ Los Angeles3423493769,974,2033.6$27,987 San Diego2442332083,183,1437.2$31,043 Orange2762832673,086,3318.9$34,416 Riverside2010142,266,8990.6$23,660 San Bernardino1816222,078,5860.9$21,384 Santa Clara5085655281,841,56929.0$42,666 Alameda2532643051,559,30817.6$36,439 Sacramento3227211,450,2771.8$27,071 Contra Costa105931241,081,2329.9$38,770 Fresno1274948,8440.8$20,231 Kern558857,7300.7$20,467 Ventura533838835,7905.1$33,308 San Francisco323636829,0724.2$49,986 San Mateo977660739,83710.5$47,198 San Joaquin7117701,0501.2$22,642 Stanislaus441522,7940.6$21,729 Sonoma10616491,7902.2$33,361 Tulare001451,1080.1$17,888 Santa Barbara121216431,5553.1$30,526 Monterey6155424,9272.0$25,048 Solano322421,6240.6$29,132 Placer956361,5181.8$35,711 San Luis Obispo528274,1841.8$30,392 Santa Cruz766267,2032.4$33,050 Merced11261,6090.3$18,464 Marin121116256,8025.1$58,004 Butte312221,5780.9$24,430 Yolo161113204,1626.5$28,080 El Dorado655181,4652.9$35,128 Shasta22178,5200.7$23,763 Imperial11177,0260.4$16,409 Madera000152,452-$17,797 Kings010151,3900.2$18,518 Napa012139,2530.7$35,092 Humboldt122134,8761.2$23,516 Nevada00098,606-$32,117 Sutter00195,0670.4$23,828 Mendocino1387,6121.5$23,712 Yuba00073,059-$19,586 Lake00064,209-$21,310 Tehama00063,284-$21,002 San Benito00056,888-$26,317 Tuolumne00054,347-$26,063 Calaveras01044,9210.7$29,296 Siskiyou00044,261-$22,482 Amador00037,159-$27,373 Lassen00033,356-$19,847 Del Norte00028,066-$19,424 Glenn00028,019-$21,698 Colusa00021,424-$22,211 Plumas00019,286-$2,9167 Inyo00018,439-$27,028 Mariposa00017,946-$28,327 Mono00114,1932.3$29,578 Trinity1113,5154.9$23,145 Modoc0009,335-$21,830 Sierra0003,019-$28,030 Alpine0001,202-$24,375 The Income Effect It’s impossible to discuss the geographic spread of PSAT and SAT scores without touching on income. Standardized tests come under a good deal of criticism for their correlation with family income. I kept things at the county level for simplicity, since income by high school is not easily determined. In order to adjust for population and to even out annual fluctuations, I calculated the average number of Semifinalists per year per 100,000 of population.   For example, Contra Costa has a population of 1,081,000 and an average of just under 108 Semifinalists per year, so its measure is 9.9 SF/yr/100K population. The chart below reflects the data for the most populous 30 counties. A logarithmic scale is used for the vertical axis to better reflect the relationship between the variables. While there appears to be an exponential relationship between the two measures, it’s quite loose. Looking at comparably sized counties provides mixed evidence. For example, Marin county has the highest per capita income in the state, but its SF/yr/100K figure is only the 8th highest. Yolo County has half the per capita income as Marin and 80% of the population, but has an almost identical number of Semifinalists. On the other hand, among the most populous counties, Santa Clara’s income and Semifinalist level both stand out, and San Bernardino and Riverside are at the low end of both measures. Technology and educational centers likely come into play — drawing in brainpower not just statewide, but nationally and internationally. In the end, achieving a top PSAT is an individual achievement — and a specialized one. It would be wrong to use such a narrow measurement to judge the educational achievements of schools and cities. When limiting the discussion to the National Merit Scholarship Program alone, though, this sort of analysis  seems valid. Compass believes in an extremely expansive definition of test preparation; we try to inform about testing topics from micro to macro. We will continue to monitor the impact of the new PSAT and new SAT on everything from how it performs on individual questions to how it reshapes testing at high schools and colleges.